Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Disaster Risk Management Cycle

European Science Foundation Conference
November 28 to December 1, 2011, Sant Feliu de Guixols, Spain

Global Earthquake Model, calculating and communicating seismic risk worldwide

Rui Pinho
GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy

GEM brings state-of-the-art science and national, regional, international organisations as well as individuals together in a global collaborative effort that aims to have a lasting impact on seismic risk assessment. Hundreds of organisations and thousands of individual experts and professionals worldwide are working on the development of a cutting-edge, dynamic and openly accessible model for the assessment of seismic risk worldwide. The model integrates global uniform databases, standardized methods and input models. It will allow for computation of the probability of earthquakes occurring, the damage this can induce to buildings and people and the influence this can have on the vulnerability of structures and systems. Stakeholders will access the model through the web-based OpenGEM platform, where they will have access to tools for analysis of seismic risk, for assessing the possible impact on society and economy, and a set of decision-making tools. OpenGEM is to meet the needs of a wide group of prospective users and beneficiaries, including those working and deciding on risk resilience and mitigation. It will therefore allow for earthquake risk assessment at the community, national and international level and for integration/compatibility with ongoing initiatives on disaster risk reduction. It will have a dedicated interface for users with expert-knowledge that are able to run their own computations, add data to the model and produce their own input-data. Common users will be able to make use of ready-available maps, tables, indicators and tools for analysis and decision-making. Users will be connected to each other, thus being able to share their experiences and analyses and jointly expand the body of knowledge on earthquake risk assessment. OpenGEM V1.0 will become available at the end of 2013, but the innovative OpenQuake software that will power all computations, is being developed in the open and is already available. A number of GEM collaborators have already used it to execute important calculations; a set of national hazard maps of Ecuador were produced with OpenQuake and presented to the country's government, loss calculations were carried out for Istanbul by the Middle-East Regional Programme EMME and for Europe by the SHARE programme. GEM's modus operandi is one of true global collaboration by means of open communication and discussion, as we believe that a global model can only be built in full cooperation with experts and stakeholders from around the world, and in this way become authoritative because they believe in it and use it. This decentralised working model supports growth of a network of GEM-followers contributing to improved seismic risk assessment, and to making it more accessible for all. For more information on GEM, please visit www.globalquakemodel.org.