Responsibility and liability of scientists: the case of the L'Aquila earthquakeMassimo Cocco The April 6th 2009 L'Aquila main shock (Mw 6.1) allowed the collection of an unprecedented set of data for moderate-magnitude normal-faulting earthquakes. It struck the central Apennines (Italy) and caused relevant damages in the L'Aquila urban area and surrounding villages causing more than 300 fatalities. This area is well monitored through permanent seismic and GPS networks, which allowed a detailed reconstruction of the real time evolution of seismicity before and after the main shock. Moreover, the installation of a dense temporary network of seismometers immediately after the earthquake allowed the recording of a wealth of aftershocks and the imaging of the complex geometry of the active fault system. The analysis of the collected data reveals the complexity of the rupture initiation process as well as the subsequent propagation on the causative fault. As many other previous moderate and large magnitude events in Italy, this earthquake has left the scientific community and the involved stakeholders quite evident lessons concerning the necessary prevention actions, as well as the urgent need to train and educate the society to live in earthquake prone areas. These lessons should spur all the public authorities towards a better use of seismic hazard maps and available information concerning the vulnerability of the Italian territory, with particular attention to urban areas. These lessons demand for urgent initiatives to increase the resilience of the Italian society to natural hazards. Unfortunately, these lessons are still unheard. The missed prediction and the claimed lack of adequate indications for evacuating the population immediately before the earthquake have focused the attention of the media and produced a misleading effect on public opinion. There was the presumption to undertake prevention actions in few days or hours without any existing plan for emergency management; there was the presumption to do in few days what it was not done in previous decades or years. In this presentation I will discuss the knowledge that Italian seismologists had, and the information available before the L'Aquila earthquake. I will revisit them taking into account the scientific findings achieved after the April 6th 2009 main shock. The goal is to discuss the distinct contributions and the different roles in the decision chain linking the understanding of the physical process, the hazard assessment, the risk mitigation, the prevention actions, the emergency planning the disaster management, and the preparedness of society. This discussion is of relevance for many others disciplines in environmental science. |
