Session on “Global Disasters: Addressing the Risk Associated with Extreme Geohazards”

Organized by the GHCP.

Hoping for the Best or Preparing for Extreme Hazards: The Example of Extreme Geohazards

Hans-Peter Plag, Mitigation and Adaptation Research Institute (MARI), Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA, USA

Humanity is challenged by low-probability, high-impact hazards that could cause global disasters and catastrophes. These extreme events have in common that their probability is not well known and that direct experience is lacking. Luckily, modern civilization has not been exposed to the most extreme natural hazards so far. Projecting past extreme events to present conditions can help to assess the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact hazards. Recent mega earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. They also revealed that preparedness for these events is low, increasing the disaster risk. Under today's circumstances, the largest volcanic eruptions that occurred during the Holocene could impact societal infrastructure, the supply of resources, and food security on global scale and cause global disasters. Their potential impact on civilization is comparable to other possible mega disasters from extreme droughts, floods, pandemics, and asteroid impacts. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) for extreme events requires a paradigm shift to structural preparedness for public services on a regional to global scale. It also requires a focus on implementation, maintenance and coordination of monitoring systems, preparedness to emergency actions, resilience, antifragility, and the ability to cope with and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. A joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship are required to achieve DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. A transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events.The global scale spectrum of the volcanic hazard.